Commercial real estate owners and developers continue operating in a market defined by shifting demand patterns, tighter capital conditions and ongoing policy uncertainty. While some sectors are stabilizing after several volatile years, others are still adjusting to changing tenant behavior, elevated operating costs and evolving financing conditions. Across nearly every asset class, owners, developers and investors are balancing cautious optimism with the need for disciplined planning and operational efficiency.
Below offers insights into the trends driving commercial real estate performance and the policy developments influencing investment and development decisions.
The office sector continues its gradual recovery as leasing activity gains momentum. New lease volume has improved to its strongest level in the last three years, and the total number of lease deals has returned to pre-pandemic norms. However, tenants are leasing less space on average, with new lease sizes running roughly 15% smaller than before 2020.
This shift reflects a broader focus on flexibility and cost management. Many tenants now prefer smaller, move-in-ready spec suites rather than committing to large footprints. At the same time, demand for high-quality office environments remains strong, particularly in trophy buildings and amenity-rich locations.
While office demand remains uneven, supply dynamics are beginning to stabilize the sector. Construction starts have steadily declined since 2020, and demolition activity has accelerated as obsolete office properties are removed from inventory or converted into other uses, including multifamily housing.
These trends are expected to reduce overall office supply by the end of the decade. As a result, vacancy rates may gradually improve despite slower employment growth.
Employment growth remains a major factor influencing office demand. Markets in the Sun Belt, including Charlotte, Austin and Phoenix, continue to outperform due to stronger population growth and business migration trends. Meanwhile, many Midwest markets are expected to face slower recovery patterns.
Office investment activity also showed signs of improvement. Although office transaction volume remains below other major property sectors, it posted a 42% year-over-year increase in the first quarter, its strongest quarter in the past four years. Investors are gaining more confidence as pricing becomes clearer and institutional buyers begin reentering the market.
After five years of negative net absorption, demand was positive in each of the last three quarters as new construction ground to a halt and vacancy was slightly lower.
Capital flow also shifted in the last year. Private investors remained the largest buyers in 2025, executing almost half of the transactions. The most notable change was an uptick in institutional buyers making up almost 25% of the sales volume.
Still, uncertainty remains in many urban core markets where financing conditions and valuations continue to present challenges.
Despite softer performance in the first quarter, retail real estate continues to demonstrate resilience. Net absorption turned negative during Q1 as move-outs increased, driven partly by store closures and rising operating costs among smaller retailers.
Even so, leasing activity remained strong, reaching its fastest pace since early 2024. Market participants continue to report strong demand for well-located retail space, particularly in centers with strong visibility and customer traffic. Vacant second-generation spaces are often being backfilled quickly.
The median time to lease is at historic lows, and the share of available space continues to run above historic norms — reflecting continued competition for high quality assets.
One of retail’s biggest advantages remains its constrained supply pipeline. Construction activity is near multidecade lows, while demolition and repurposing efforts continue to limit inventory growth.
That limited new supply is helping maintain balanced market conditions even as retailers adjust to slower discretionary spending and higher operating expenses.
Elevated construction and financing costs, higher capital expectations and limited feasibility for speculative projects continue to suppress new construction starts.
Retail investment activity also remained active during the first quarter as sales volume increased 31% compared to the same period in 2025, representing the strongest first three months of the year on record. Owners continue to benefit from favorable mark-to-market opportunities as lease renewals capture higher rental rates compared to older leases.
Open-air shopping centers and high-quality net lease retail assets continue to attract investor interest, particularly properties with stable traffic patterns and strong tenant fundamentals.
The industrial sector continues to face pressure from broader economic conditions. Slower consumer spending on goods, softer import activity and rising operating costs across supply chains are creating a more cautious environment for tenants.
Manufacturers and logistics providers are also dealing with higher raw material costs and elevated diesel prices, which are squeezing margins and reducing appetite for expansion. Many tenants are expected to become more selective during lease negotiations and more conservative about taking on additional space.
Industrial deliveries are slowing, but supply is still expected to outpace demand in the near term. Vacancy rates are projected to peak around 8% in 2026 and start to decline in 2027. Net absorption has rebounded, but availability remains elevated at 9.6% with sublease availability increasing to 1.1%. Spaces are also leasing at a slower rate at well over five months as compared to 3.5 months a few years ago. At the same time, rent growth has slowed significantly, reaching its lowest annual growth rate since 2012.
Even with these challenges, many existing leases continue to renew at higher rates due to the substantial rent growth experienced during the pandemic years.
Industrial remains one of the healthiest sectors from an investment perspective with sales volume increasing 23% year-over-year. Transaction volume has returned above pre-pandemic averages, supported by strong investor demand and significant capital waiting to be deployed.
Private capital continues to dominate market share of deals $10 million and less, whereas institutional capital has returned en masse for deals $50 million and greater. Deals in the middle continue to show a softer market.
Market participants expect 2026 to remain active for industrial sales as institutional investors continue targeting logistics and distribution assets.
Multifamily demand remains positive overall, but several key demographic drivers are slowing. Population growth has moderated significantly since peaking in 2024, while household formation has also cooled from the elevated levels seen earlier in the decade.
Job growth is also slowing nationally, which may reduce apartment demand over the next several quarters.
Regional performance differences remain pronounced in multifamily. Sun Belt markets continue capturing more than half of national apartment absorption and are expected to maintain their leadership position over the next five years due to stronger migration and employment trends. Midwest markets, by contrast, continue to face slower long-term demand growth.
Although apartment deliveries remain elevated, developers have significantly reduced new groundbreakings. Over time, that pullback should help bring supply and demand back into balance. In the short term, however, excess supply continues to affect lease-up timelines and rent growth. Many newly delivered properties are taking longer to stabilize, particularly compared to projects completed before 2020.
The multifamily investment market entered 2026 with positive momentum. Transaction activity reached approximately $30 billion during the first quarter — a 31% increase year-over-year and comparable to 2019 levels.
Improved liquidity, easing credit conditions and prior Federal Reserve rate cuts have all contributed to stronger investor activity. Still, refinancing pressures remain a concern for some owners with debt maturities approaching in the coming years.
The legislative environment remains highly active for commercial real estate. While another major federal tax bill in 2026 appears unlikely, policymakers continue exploring targeted tax and housing initiatives. We are closely monitoring several proposals that could significantly impact development, redevelopment and investment activity.
One of the most closely watched proposals is the Revitalizing Downtowns and Main Streets Act, which would create a 20% tax credit for qualifying office-to-residential conversion projects. The proposal aims to support redevelopment of underutilized office properties while also addressing housing shortages. As office vacancy challenges persist in many urban markets, conversion incentives could become an important tool for repositioning obsolete assets.
Qualified Opportunity Zones also remain a major area of focus for investors and policymakers. Industry groups continue advocating for additional clarity and reforms surrounding existing Opportunity Zone census tracts, working capital safe harbors and redevelopment thresholds. Uncertainty around future rules has already slowed some new investment activity as developers wait for additional guidance.
Policymakers are also evaluating proposals tied to workforce housing, energy efficiency incentives and cost recovery reform. These initiatives are intended to encourage housing development, support redevelopment activity and improve capital investment conditions across the real estate sector. At the same time, industry leaders continue monitoring potential risks, including carried interest reforms, partnership tax changes and proposals that could limit deductions or increase taxes on certain forms of real estate investment.
The commercial real estate market continues to move through a period of adjustment rather than broad-based disruption. While economic uncertainty and operating pressures remain, several sectors are showing signs of stabilization supported by constrained supply, improving capital markets and disciplined investment activity.
For business owners, developers and investors, the current environment reinforces the importance of strategic planning, operational efficiency and staying informed on legislative developments that could materially affect future projects and investment returns. As market conditions continue evolving, owners and investors will need to balance disciplined underwriting with operational flexibility. The ability to respond quickly to changing capital markets, tenant demand and legislative developments will likely separate the strongest performers from the broader market over the next several years.
Thank you to CoStar Group and The Real Estate Round Table for presenting with us on our recent national real estate and construction market update webinar.
Contact Dave Sobochan, Adam Hill or a member of your service team to discuss this topic further.
In this blog Cohen & Co is not rendering legal, accounting, investment, tax or other professional advice. Rather, the information contained in this blog is for general informational purposes only. Any decisions or actions based on the general information contained in this blog should be made or taken only after a detailed review of the specific facts, circumstances and current law with your professional advisers.